< Back to Blog Listings

Clock Is Ticking For Dwindling Refi Candidate Population

Blog By

Andy Walden

Published February 17, 2022

Up and up, they go. Today’s Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) showed the average 30-year conforming mortgage rate at 3.92%. That’s the highest rates have been since May 2019, and the jump has big implications for the refinance market.

The latest numbers from Freddie have cut the pool of high-quality refinance candidates significantly. The population continues to dwindle, with millions of borrowers having lost rate incentive to refinance in the last month and a half.

The clock is ticking. PMMS looks at historical data. Our OBMMI daily interest rate tracker shows 30-year conforming rates have continued to climb over the past week.

As of today, just 3.8 million remain – down from about 11 million entering 2022 and nearly 20 million back in 2020.

These remaining rate-driven refinance candidates could benefit from an aggregate potential $1 billion in monthly savings, or about $284/month per borrower, should they decide to refinance today.


Drilling deeper into the data, we see just 750,000 candidates remain who could save at least $400 per month by refinancing, and less than half a million who could save $500 or more per month.

This uptrend, though not unprecedented, is significant. We’ve only seen rates rise as sharply and quickly as they have over the past 8 weeks (+ 87 basis points) roughly a dozen times over the past 50 years.


The last time they rose this fast was during the so-called “Taper Tantrum” of 2013, when interest rates spiked following the Fed’s curtailing of post-recession quantitative easing.